President Hassan Sheikh "We have decided to ask help from the Somali people instead of waiting for foreign aid and Amisom. After a lot of organizing and success achieved, the people came to be a part of the war against the Khawarij.
Saturday, September 2, 2023
Thursday, August 31, 2023
The Multifaceted Factors Behind the Somali National Army's Withdrawal from Key Fronts
The withdrawal of the Somali National Army (SNA) from areas previously reclaimed from Al-Shabaab marked a considerable setback, despite the initial optimism following President Hassan's election and his pledge to eradicate the terrorist group from Somalia. Early successes, such as the liberation of Ceelbuur and other villages, were overshadowed by a significant defeat in Cawswayne, resulting in the loss of numerous lives, including the armed forces' commander, Shaahmacabe. This led to the SNA's withdrawal from several key regions, including Ceelbuur, Masagawa, Budbud, Ceeldheer, and Cawswayne.
- Lack of Unified National Policy and Army: A considerable segment of the Somali population perceives the SNA as a tribal militia rather than a unified national force, leading to a fragmented and ineffective front against Al-Shabaab as individual tribes often prioritize the liberation of their own territories.
- Widespread Corruption: Corruption, particularly among army contractors, is rife. Many argue that the president's family has been involved in the corruption of medical supplies, food and supplies, fuel, weapons and ammunition, and communication and electronic equipment. This undermines the SNA's operational capacity and morale.
- Lack of Organization, Communication, and Control: An absence of clear command and communication structures hinders the smooth execution of operations, leading to confusion and eventual withdrawal.
- Infiltration by Al-Shabaab: Al-Shabaab has successfully infiltrated both the army and the government, posing a significant security threat and eroding trust and confidence within the forces.
- Political Sabotage: Allegedly, some politicians desire President Hassan to fail in liberating the country from Al-Shabaab, complicating the situation further and undermining the SNA's efforts.
- Perceived Lack of Leadership: Many view President Hassan as incompetent and ill-suited for his position, leading to a lack of collaboration and unified vision, hampering the fight against Al-Shabaab, and undermining the president's authority and the overall mission.
- Tribal Conflicts: Tribal conflicts and priorities often overshadow the collective effort needed to combat Al-Shabaab, leading to a divided and weakened front.
- Low Morale: A combination of inadequate resources, poor leadership, political sabotage, and Al-Shabaab infiltration leads to low morale among SNA troops, affecting their willingness to fight and overall battlefield effectiveness.
- Poorly Defined Objectives: The absence of clearly defined military operation objectives makes it difficult for soldiers to understand their mission's purpose and goals, leading to a lack of focus and determination.
- Lack of Local Support: The SNA often struggles to gain the trust and support of local communities, leading to a lack of ground intelligence and support.
- Superior Tactics of Al-Shabaab: Al-Shabaab frequently employs guerrilla tactics, including ambushes, IEDs, and hit-and-run attacks, which the SNA is inadequately trained or equipped to handle.
- External Support for Al-Shabaab: Al-Shabaab receives support from external sources, including foreign fighters, funding, and weapons, enhancing the group's capabilities and making it more challenging for the SNA to combat them.
In conclusion, the SNA's withdrawal from previously recaptured cities and villages was influenced by a combination of factors, including a lack of unified national policy and army, widespread corruption, poor organization, communication, and control, Al-Shabaab infiltration, political sabotage, perceived lack of leadership, tribal conflicts, low morale, poorly defined objectives, lack of local support, and superior tactics of Al-Shabaab. Addressing these issues is crucial for fostering unity, organization, and trust among the forces and the government, all of which are necessary for successfully liberating and securing the country.
Wednesday, August 30, 2023
The Downfall of a Dynasty: Gabon's 2023 Coup
The year 2023 marked a crucial moment in Gabon's history when a faction of its military attempted to overthrow President Ali Bongo Ondimba's government. The Bongo family has ruled Gabon for over half a century, and their tenure has been marked with allegations of corruption, nepotism, and economic mismanagement. This article explores the geopolitical significance of Gabon, the root causes of the coup, the key actors involved, the international response, the impact on regional stability, and the long-term implications for Gabon and its citizens.
Geopolitical Significance of Gabon
Gabon is strategically located along the Gulf of Guinea, a critical maritime route for oil and gas exports. It is one of Africa's largest oil producers, and its stability is crucial for maintaining the flow of oil to global markets. Moreover, Gabon's rich biodiversity and natural resources make it an important player in global efforts to combat climate change.
Root Causes
The growing dissatisfaction among Gabonese citizens with the Bongo family's rule has been brewing for years. Despite its oil wealth, a significant portion of the population lives in poverty and unemployment is rampant. The contested election, where Ali Bongo Ondimba secured a third term with 64.27% of the vote, exacerbated the frustration, leading many to believe that the results were rigged in favor of the ruling Gabonese Democratic Party.
Main Protagonists
General Brice Oligui Nguema, a cousin of deposed President Ali Bongo and former head of the Gabonese Republican Guard, was named as the transitional president by the coup leaders. Nguema, a veteran military officer, emphasized the need for calm and serenity following his appointment and ordered the restoration of internet services and international radio and television channels.
International Response
The international community, including the African Union and the United Nations, swiftly condemned the coup attempt. However, the rapid response by loyalist forces and the subsequent arrest of the coup leaders limited the need for a protracted international response.
Impact on Regional Stability
Although the coup attempt was quickly suppressed, it exposed potential vulnerabilities that could be exploited by external actors or neighboring countries with vested interests. The incident served as a reminder of the importance of addressing the underlying causes of unrest to ensure long-term stability and prosperity in the region.
Long-term Repercussions
While the coup leaders were arrested, the attempt highlighted the deep-seated dissatisfaction with the Bongo family's rule and the urgent need for political and economic reforms. The incident catalyzed discussions on the need for a more transparent and inclusive approach to governance, which could help build trust in political institutions and reduce the likelihood of future coup attempts.
Implications on the Political, Economic, and Social Landscape
The coup attempt amplified political tensions in Gabon, further eroding trust in political institutions. It underscored the importance of addressing the widespread dissatisfaction among the Gabonese population and implementing economic measures to address poverty and unemployment. Moreover, it highlighted the importance of addressing the underlying causes of unrest to ensure long-term stability and prosperity for the Gabonese people.
Public Response and Protest
The coup attempt was met with mixed reactions from the Gabonese public. Many expressed their support for the coup leaders on social media and in local media, stating that the military coup was a response to an electoral coup. However, there were also those who were dispersed by police when they tried to show their support for the coup at the Gabonese embassy in Senegal.
Potential Preventive Strategies
To prevent future coup attempts, it is imperative that the Gabonese government implement political reforms to reduce the Bongo family's stranglehold on power, address economic challenges such as unemployment and poverty, and tackle the perception of rampant corruption. Additionally, a more transparent and inclusive approach to governance and free and fair elections would help build trust in political institutions.
Conclusion
The 2023 coup attempt in Gabon serves as a stark reminder of the importance of addressing political, economic, and social grievances to prevent unrest. The geopolitical significance of Gabon makes its stability crucial for the region and the global economy. It is imperative that the Gabonese government undertakes meaningful reforms to address the underlying causes of dissatisfaction, build trust in political institutions, and ensure long-term stability and prosperity for its people. Additionally, the international community should closely monitor the situation and provide support where necessary to facilitate a more inclusive and transparent approach to governance in Gabon.
Tuesday, August 29, 2023
The War on Goojacadde: A New Chapter for Somali Federalism
The 2023 conflict in Goojacadde, situated in the Sool region of Somalia, is a crucial turning point in the ongoing struggle for control within the region. This confrontation involved the forces of the Somaliland National Army and the SSC-Khatumo forces representing the Dhulbahante clan. The subsequent victory of the SSC-Khatumo forces, marked by the capture of over 100 armed vehicles, 260 prisoners, and notably, Faisal Abdi Butaan, the commander of the 12th division of the Somaliland military, signals a change in the region's power dynamics. The strategic restraint shown by the SSC elders, who advised their forces not to cross into the border city of Guumays, highlights the strategic foresight amid the conflict. This event not only dismantles Somaliland's separatist narrative but also impacts Somalia's political landscape and the structure of Somali federalism.
The Root Causes
The uprising in the region was triggered by the assassination of approximately 120 local individuals in Lascaano, an act for which elders accused Somaliland, although it did not respond to the accusations. This incident fueled the already simmering tensions in a region where the battle for power and territorial control has been longstanding. The Dhulbahante clan, represented by the SSC-Khatumo forces, has long advocated for greater autonomy and recognition within Somalia. They argue that Somaliland, an internationally unrecognized region that declared independence from Somalia, has intensified its attacks on the Somali unification movement, leading to heightened tensions and conflicts. Moreover, the competition for scarce resources, worsened by the colonial legacy and military repression, and the collapse of the Somali state in the 1990s, created a power vacuum that set the stage for ongoing conflicts.
Implications of the SSC's Victory
The success of the SSC-Khatumo forces signifies more than just a military triumph. It also underscores the strength and determination of these forces and highlights the strategic thinking of the SSC elders. More importantly, it challenges Somaliland's claim of sovereignty over the region. Somaliland's long-standing quest for international recognition as an independent state has been a major point of contention. The recent liberation of the Sool region not only undermines this separatist agenda but also strengthens the case for a unified Somalia.
The Path Forward for Unity and Federalism
The outcome of the conflict and the liberation of the Sool region can potentially have positive implications for Somali federalism and unity. The federal system in Somalia was devised to foster national unity by devolving power to regional states. However, this system has been challenged by conflicting territorial and authority claims by regional states and the separatist agenda of Somaliland. With the end of bilateral talks that Somaliland used to assert its status as a separate entity, there is now an opportunity to reinforce the federal system and promote national unity.
State Building in Somalia
Despite the victory in Goojacadde, Somalia remains in the midst of a state-building process, working diligently to rebuild its institutions and governance structures after decades of conflict and instability. Undermining Somaliland's separatist agenda and strengthening the case for a unified Somalia are critical steps in this process.
Conclusion
The Goojacadde conflict and the subsequent victory of the SSC-Khatumo forces represent significant milestones in the Somali conflict. By challenging Somaliland's authority over disputed regions and strengthening the federal government of Somalia's position, this victory undermines Somaliland's separatist agenda. It also presents an opportunity to address the challenges facing the federal system and promote stability and national unity in Somalia, which are essential for the country's ongoing state-building process.
Tuesday, July 4, 2023
The list of Somali factories 30 years ago
LIISKA WARSHADIHII SOOMAALIYA 30 SANO KA HOR:
Why is Somalia still under Chapter 7 of the United Nations Charter and what is its impact on National Sovereignty?
Chapter VII of the United Nations (UN) Charter is a provision that allows the Security Council to intervene in a country experiencing crises, aimed at preventing such crises from disrupting international peace and security.
This intervention includes sanctions, economic, diplomatic, and military force. Since the inclusion of Chapter 7 in the United Nations Charter, it has been used in several countries experiencing conflict and political instability, including: Somalia (1992), Iraq (1990), Bosnia (1995), Liberia (2003), Côte d'Ivoire (2004), Sudan (2005), Libya (2011), and others.
Somalia, a country plagued by civil wars, terrorism, and prolonged state collapse, for over two decades has been under Chapter 7 of the United Nations Charter. Following the collapse of Siad Barre's regime in 1991, the country descended into a state of lawlessness, with numerous factions fighting for control, including clan-based groups, warlords, religious organizations, and powerful pirates disrupting international maritime trade.
This chaotic situation was seen as a threat to international peace and security, leading the UN Security Council to intervene, placing Somalia under Chapter 7.
Countries under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter do not have full sovereignty. For example, the Security Council can interfere at any time with the internal affairs of that country, such as:
Chapter 7 has led Somalia to admit foreign troops without consultation, including the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). This can be seen as a violation of Somalia's sovereignty. However, considering how the Federal Government has managed its internal security and the impact it has had on regional stability, the international community sees this intervention as a necessity.
So, to get Somalia out of Chapter 7, there needs to be a restoration of peace, stability, and the functioning of the federal government and regional administrations. A government that controls its territory manages its borders, and fulfills its international obligations is a prerequisite.
Nevertheless, this effort must be led by the Somali government, and supported by the international community, and it should become a beacon of good governance, respect for human rights, and the rule of law.
In conclusion, although Chapter VII has played a crucial role in international efforts to restore peace and stability in Somalia, the country's exit from Chapter 7 depends on its ability to overcome the challenges it has faced to reach a future of peace, stability, and prosperity.
Thursday, June 22, 2023
Conflict of Interest in Garowe, Somalia
Main Perspectives:
- Government's Perspective
- Aran Jan Group's Perspective
- Clan Elders' Perspective
Subtopics:
Government's Perspective
- Democratic Philosophy and Mandate: The government, having the mandate to lead the country, strongly upholds a democratic system "for the people, by the people". It aims to implement a "one man, one vote" system.
- Transition to Multi-Party System: The government intends to amend the constitution, extending the number of political parties from three to five, to enhance diversity and representation.
- Public Support: Election authorities report nearly 400,000 registered voters, and 3,775 candidates from seven political parties, including the ruling Kaah party, are on the ballot across 33 districts in local elections.
- Opposition to Clan-Based Selection: The government stands against the current system where clan elders select parliamentary members based on clan affiliation, seeing it as prone to corruption and vote buying.
- No Official Mandate: Unlike the government, the Aran Jan group does not hold a formal mandate to direct the country, yet it exerts influence through its opposition to democratic processes.
- Resistance to Democratic Elections: The group, based in Garowe, stands against the democratic election process advocated by the government.
- Advocacy for Clan-Based Selection: They endorse the clan elders' system of parliamentary member selection, a process potentially susceptible to corruption and vote buying.
- Support from Federal Leaders: The group receives financial backing from federal leaders who perceive democratic elections as a threat to the clan-based 4.5 formula election system that brought them to power. These leaders believe that due to security concerns in South and Central Somalia, they won't hold a "one person, one vote" system in the 2026 federal election.
- Desire to Maintain Status Quo: Clan elders aim to maintain the current system, resisting changes that threaten their traditional authority and the clan-based selection process.
- Opposition to Democratic Elections: They reject the "one man, one vote" principle, believing it could undermine their power in parliamentary member selection.
- Support for Clan Representation: They argue that the clan-based system ensures all clans receive adequate representation in the parliament.
Wednesday, June 21, 2023
The Ongoing Conflicts in Somalia: A Complex Web of State-Society Relations, Religious Discourses, Elite Power Struggles, and Politicized Clan Dynamics
As of 2023, Somalia is embroiled in a complex web of conflicts marked by state-society tensions, religious extremism, elite power contests, and politicized clan dynamics. This multifaceted conflict landscape underscores the intricate socio-political context of Somalia, calling for nuanced strategies for peacebuilding and conflict resolution.
Tensions Between State and Society:
A notable facet of Somalia's current issues is the tension between the federal government and the states it oversees. Critics point to a divisive strategy by the central government, based in Mogadishu, suggesting it seeks to amass power by weakening member states of the federation. Allegations of government interference in regional conflicts, particularly in the case of Garowe in Puntland, is seen as an attempt to destabilize a stronghold of federalism and democracy in the country. As Puntland pioneers democratic governance with its 'one person one vote' elections, such interferences indicate the significant chasm between state and society, and highlight struggles for power and control.
Conflict Under the Guise of Religion:
In the religious arena, extremism, chiefly through the militant Islamist group Al-Shabab, intensifies Somalia's instability. Predominantly active in South and Central Somalia, Al-Shabab has inflicted considerable damage, opposing the democratization process while advocating for nationwide Sharia law. Their use of religious sentiments to achieve political objectives not only undermines the government's authority but also widens social and political schisms.
Elite Power Struggles:
Amid this turbulent backdrop, power disputes among the political elite add a further layer of complexity. A prime example is the group known as "Aran Jan" in Puntland, allegedly backed by external entities aiming to destabilize Puntland. They strive to usurp power by subverting the democratic choices of the populace. Such elite conflicts, characterized by manipulation, coercion, and violence, pose substantial threats to regional peace and stability.
Politicized Clan Dynamics:
Inextricably linked to these power struggles are the politically charged clan conflicts. Clan identity is deeply embedded in Somali politics and society and is manipulated by groups like "Aran Jan" to provoke intra-clan disputes. Such politically incited conflicts disrupt social cohesion and hinder progress toward more democratic governance.
In conclusion, the ongoing conflicts in Somalia represent a convoluted amalgam of state-society discord, religious extremism, elite power disputes, and politicized clan dynamics. Tackling these challenges necessitates a comprehensive strategy that promotes inclusive governance, counters extremism, mediates elite disputes, and depoliticizes clan identities. The path towards stability and peace in Somalia is undoubtedly arduous, but it is within reach with concerted and strategic efforts.