The Multifaceted Factors Behind the Somali National Army's Withdrawal from Key Fronts

The withdrawal of the Somali National Army (SNA) from areas previously reclaimed from Al-Shabaab marked a considerable setback, despite the initial optimism following President Hassan's election and his pledge to eradicate the terrorist group from Somalia. Early successes, such as the liberation of Ceelbuur and other villages, were overshadowed by a significant defeat in Cawswayne, resulting in the loss of numerous lives, including the armed forces' commander, Shaahmacabe. This led to the SNA's withdrawal from several key regions, including Ceelbuur, Masagawa, Budbud, Ceeldheer, and Cawswayne.

1. Lack of Unified National Policy and Army: A considerable segment of the Somali population perceives the SNA as a tribal militia rather than a unified national force, leading to a fragmented and ineffective front against Al-Shabaab as individual tribes often prioritize the liberation of their own territories.
2. Widespread Corruption: Corruption, particularly among army contractors, is rife. Many argue that the president's family has been involved in the corruption of medical supplies, food and supplies, fuel, weapons and ammunition, and communication and electronic equipment. This undermines the SNA's operational capacity and morale.
3. Lack of Organization, Communication, and Control: An absence of clear command and communication structures hinders the smooth execution of operations, leading to confusion and eventual withdrawal.
4. Infiltration by Al-Shabaab: Al-Shabaab has successfully infiltrated both the army and the government, posing a significant security threat and eroding trust and confidence within the forces.
5. Political Sabotage: Allegedly, some politicians desire President Hassan to fail in liberating the country from Al-Shabaab, complicating the situation further and undermining the SNA's efforts.
6. Perceived Lack of Leadership: Many view President Hassan as incompetent and ill-suited for his position, leading to a lack of collaboration and unified vision, hampering the fight against Al-Shabaab, and undermining the president's authority and the overall mission.
7. Tribal Conflicts: Tribal conflicts and priorities often overshadow the collective effort needed to combat Al-Shabaab, leading to a divided and weakened front.
8. Low Morale: A combination of inadequate resources, poor leadership, political sabotage, and Al-Shabaab infiltration leads to low morale among SNA troops, affecting their willingness to fight and overall battlefield effectiveness.
9. Poorly Defined Objectives: The absence of clearly defined military operation objectives makes it difficult for soldiers to understand their mission's purpose and goals, leading to a lack of focus and determination.
10. Lack of Local Support: The SNA often struggles to gain the trust and support of local communities, leading to a lack of ground intelligence and support.
11. Superior Tactics of Al-Shabaab: Al-Shabaab frequently employs guerrilla tactics, including ambushes, IEDs, and hit-and-run attacks, which the SNA is inadequately trained or equipped to handle.
12. External Support for Al-Shabaab: Al-Shabaab receives support from external sources, including foreign fighters, funding, and weapons, enhancing the group's capabilities and making it more challenging for the SNA to combat them.

In conclusion, the SNA's withdrawal from previously recaptured cities and villages was influenced by a combination of factors, including a lack of unified national policy and army, widespread corruption, poor organization, communication, and control, Al-Shabaab infiltration, political sabotage, perceived lack of leadership, tribal conflicts, low morale, poorly defined objectives, lack of local support, and superior tactics of Al-Shabaab. Addressing these issues is crucial for fostering unity, organization, and trust among the forces and the government, all of which are necessary for successfully liberating and securing the country.

The Downfall of a Dynasty: Gabon's 2023 Coup

The year 2023 marked a crucial moment in Gabon's history when a faction of its military attempted to overthrow President Ali Bongo Ondimba's government. The Bongo family has ruled Gabon for over half a century, and their tenure has been marked with allegations of corruption, nepotism, and economic mismanagement. This article explores the geopolitical significance of Gabon, the root causes of the coup, the key actors involved, the international response, the impact on regional stability, and the long-term implications for Gabon and its citizens.

Geopolitical Significance of Gabon

Gabon is strategically located along the Gulf of Guinea, a critical maritime route for oil and gas exports. It is one of Africa's largest oil producers, and its stability is crucial for maintaining the flow of oil to global markets. Moreover, Gabon's rich biodiversity and natural resources make it an important player in global efforts to combat climate change.

Root Causes

The growing dissatisfaction among Gabonese citizens with the Bongo family's rule has been brewing for years. Despite its oil wealth, a significant portion of the population lives in poverty and unemployment is rampant. The contested election, where Ali Bongo Ondimba secured a third term with 64.27% of the vote, exacerbated the frustration, leading many to believe that the results were rigged in favor of the ruling Gabonese Democratic Party.

Main Protagonists

General Brice Oligui Nguema, a cousin of deposed President Ali Bongo and former head of the Gabonese Republican Guard, was named as the transitional president by the coup leaders. Nguema, a veteran military officer, emphasized the need for calm and serenity following his appointment and ordered the restoration of internet services and international radio and television channels.

International Response

The international community, including the African Union and the United Nations, swiftly condemned the coup attempt. However, the rapid response by loyalist forces and the subsequent arrest of the coup leaders limited the need for a protracted international response.

Impact on Regional Stability

Although the coup attempt was quickly suppressed, it exposed potential vulnerabilities that could be exploited by external actors or neighboring countries with vested interests. The incident served as a reminder of the importance of addressing the underlying causes of unrest to ensure long-term stability and prosperity in the region.

Long-term Repercussions

While the coup leaders were arrested, the attempt highlighted the deep-seated dissatisfaction with the Bongo family's rule and the urgent need for political and economic reforms. The incident catalyzed discussions on the need for a more transparent and inclusive approach to governance, which could help build trust in political institutions and reduce the likelihood of future coup attempts.

Implications on the Political, Economic, and Social Landscape

The coup attempt amplified political tensions in Gabon, further eroding trust in political institutions. It underscored the importance of addressing the widespread dissatisfaction among the Gabonese population and implementing economic measures to address poverty and unemployment. Moreover, it highlighted the importance of addressing the underlying causes of unrest to ensure long-term stability and prosperity for the Gabonese people.

Public Response and Protest

The coup attempt was met with mixed reactions from the Gabonese public. Many expressed their support for the coup leaders on social media and in local media, stating that the military coup was a response to an electoral coup. However, there were also those who were dispersed by police when they tried to show their support for the coup at the Gabonese embassy in Senegal.

Potential Preventive Strategies

To prevent future coup attempts, it is imperative that the Gabonese government implement political reforms to reduce the Bongo family's stranglehold on power, address economic challenges such as unemployment and poverty, and tackle the perception of rampant corruption. Additionally, a more transparent and inclusive approach to governance and free and fair elections would help build trust in political institutions.

Conclusion

The 2023 coup attempt in Gabon serves as a stark reminder of the importance of addressing political, economic, and social grievances to prevent unrest. The geopolitical significance of Gabon makes its stability crucial for the region and the global economy. It is imperative that the Gabonese government undertakes meaningful reforms to address the underlying causes of dissatisfaction, build trust in political institutions, and ensure long-term stability and prosperity for its people. Additionally, the international community should closely monitor the situation and provide support where necessary to facilitate a more inclusive and transparent approach to governance in Gabon.

The War on Goojacadde: A New Chapter for Somali Federalism

The 2023 conflict in Goojacadde, situated in the Sool region of Somalia, is a crucial turning point in the ongoing struggle for control within the region. This confrontation involved the forces of the Somaliland National Army and the SSC-Khatumo forces representing the Dhulbahante clan. The subsequent victory of the SSC-Khatumo forces, marked by the capture of over 100 armed vehicles, 260 prisoners, and notably, Faisal Abdi Butaan, the commander of the 12th division of the Somaliland military, signals a change in the region's power dynamics. The strategic restraint shown by the SSC elders, who advised their forces not to cross into the border city of Guumays, highlights the strategic foresight amid the conflict. This event not only dismantles Somaliland's separatist narrative but also impacts Somalia's political landscape and the structure of Somali federalism.

The Root Causes

The uprising in the region was triggered by the assassination of approximately 120 local individuals in Lascaano, an act for which elders accused Somaliland, although it did not respond to the accusations. This incident fueled the already simmering tensions in a region where the battle for power and territorial control has been longstanding. The Dhulbahante clan, represented by the SSC-Khatumo forces, has long advocated for greater autonomy and recognition within Somalia. They argue that Somaliland, an internationally unrecognized region that declared independence from Somalia, has intensified its attacks on the Somali unification movement, leading to heightened tensions and conflicts. Moreover, the competition for scarce resources, worsened by the colonial legacy and military repression, and the collapse of the Somali state in the 1990s, created a power vacuum that set the stage for ongoing conflicts.

Implications of the SSC's Victory

The success of the SSC-Khatumo forces signifies more than just a military triumph. It also underscores the strength and determination of these forces and highlights the strategic thinking of the SSC elders. More importantly, it challenges Somaliland's claim of sovereignty over the region. Somaliland's long-standing quest for international recognition as an independent state has been a major point of contention. The recent liberation of the Sool region not only undermines this separatist agenda but also strengthens the case for a unified Somalia.

The Path Forward for Unity and Federalism

The outcome of the conflict and the liberation of the Sool region can potentially have positive implications for Somali federalism and unity. The federal system in Somalia was devised to foster national unity by devolving power to regional states. However, this system has been challenged by conflicting territorial and authority claims by regional states and the separatist agenda of Somaliland. With the end of bilateral talks that Somaliland used to assert its status as a separate entity, there is now an opportunity to reinforce the federal system and promote national unity.

State Building in Somalia

Despite the victory in Goojacadde, Somalia remains in the midst of a state-building process, working diligently to rebuild its institutions and governance structures after decades of conflict and instability. Undermining Somaliland's separatist agenda and strengthening the case for a unified Somalia are critical steps in this process.

Conclusion

The Goojacadde conflict and the subsequent victory of the SSC-Khatumo forces represent significant milestones in the Somali conflict. By challenging Somaliland's authority over disputed regions and strengthening the federal government of Somalia's position, this victory undermines Somaliland's separatist agenda. It also presents an opportunity to address the challenges facing the federal system and promote stability and national unity in Somalia, which are essential for the country's ongoing state-building process.