Author: Said Noor
Introduction
The continued presence of Al-Shabaab in southern Somalia remains one of the most pressing security concerns for the Somali federal government. Despite ongoing military operations, the militant group retains control over vast territories and frequently carries out attacks against government officials and civilians. The March 18, 2025, attack on President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s convoy near Villa Somalia underscores the persistence of this threat.
In contrast, Puntland successfully eliminated Daesh (ISIS-Somalia) in the Cal Miskaat Mountains within two months in 2025, demonstrating a more effective counterterrorism strategy. This article examines Puntland’s approach and outlines how the Somali federal government can adapt this model to defeat Al-Shabaab through a comprehensive national defense plan.
Background: The Al-Shabaab Threat and Federal Government’s Approach
Current Counterterrorism Efforts in Southern Somalia
The Somali National Army (SNA), supported by regional forces, clan militias, and international allies, has conducted several offensives against Al-Shabaab. President Mohamud’s administration has emphasized military action, particularly in central and southern regions. However, despite these efforts, Al-Shabaab remains resilient due to:
- Fragmented military strategy – Disconnected regional operations without a unified command.
- Limited coordination with local forces – Unlike Puntland’s effective use of community-led intelligence, federal forces struggle to integrate local militias.
- Tactical adaptability of Al-Shabaab – The group shifts between conventional and guerrilla tactics, allowing it to survive military pressure.
The Attack on President Mohamud: A Case Study in Security Challenges
According to Reuters, Al-Shabaab targeted President Mohamud’s convoy as it traveled towards Mogadishu’s airport. The attack, which killed at least four people, was later claimed by the group on its Telegram channel (Reuters, 2025).
Presidential adviser Zakariye Hussein later confirmed that the president was unharmed and continued to the front lines, reinforcing his commitment to counterterrorism efforts.
Strategic Implications of the Attack
- Challenge to Government Authority – Directly targeting the president signals Al-Shabaab’s continued defiance.
- Undermining Public Confidence – Frequent high-profile attacks discourage investment and weaken public trust in security measures (Marchal, 2011).
- Exposure of Security Gaps – The ability to attack near a fortified location suggests potential intelligence failures or insider involvement.
Puntland’s Counterterrorism Success Against Daesh in 2025
How Puntland Defeated Daesh in 60 Days
In early 2025, ISIS-affiliated militants attempted to establish a base in the Cal Miskaat Mountains of Puntland. However, within two months, Puntland forces successfully eliminated them using a well-coordinated and intelligence-driven strategy:
- A Unified Military Command – Puntland’s security forces acted under a centralized plan, ensuring operational efficiency.
- Rapid Deployment of Counterterrorism Units – Puntland launched swift and precise military actions instead of prolonged operations.
- Community Engagement and Intelligence Sharing – Puntland authorities encouraged local populations to report militant activity, effectively disrupting Daesh’s networks.
How the Federal Government Can Apply Puntland’s Strategy
To effectively defeat Al-Shabaab, the federal government must shift from short-term offensives to a structured national defense plan. This requires:
1. Establishing a Unified National Defense Strategy
- Integrate federal, regional, and clan-based forces into a cohesive military structure.
- Develop a centralized command system to ensure effective coordination between units.
2. Enhancing Intelligence Capabilities
- Invest in local intelligence networks, following Puntland’s model of community-based reporting.
- Strengthen counterterrorism coordination between national security agencies and international partners.
3. Deploying Permanent Security Forces in Reclaimed Areas
- Instead of temporary military operations, establish permanent security posts in areas freed from Al-Shabaab control.
- Provide local governance and social services to prevent Al-Shabaab from regaining influence.
4. Learning from Puntland’s Rapid Response Model
- Train elite rapid-response counterterrorism units capable of launching highly targeted operations against Al-Shabaab leaders.
- Improve logistical support and mobility to ensure troops can respond quickly to emerging threats.
Conclusion
The federal government’s current strategy against Al-Shabaab has yielded limited success due to fragmentation, intelligence weaknesses, and lack of a unified national defense plan. Puntland’s successful elimination of Daesh in 2025 demonstrates that a coordinated, intelligence-led, and community-supported approach can effectively dismantle militant networks.
To replicate Puntland’s success, the Somali federal government must adopt a comprehensive counterterrorism strategy that prioritizes unified command, intelligence gathering, and permanent security deployments. Only by learning from Puntland’s rapid and decisive operations can Somalia hope to eliminate Al-Shabaab and secure long-term stability.
References
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