Puntland's Fight Against Terror: How U.S. Airstrikes Shift the Balance
By Said Noor
Introduction:
A Strategic Shift in Somalia’s Counterterrorism Battle
On February 1, 2025, former U.S. President Donald Trump ordered precision airstrikes targeting ISIS militants in Puntland, Somalia. The operation, focused on Al-Miskat hideouts in the Bari region, was conducted in coordination with Puntland’s government, significantly weakening ISIS’s operational presence. However, a key development in this offensive was the lack of support from Somalia’s federal government, led by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, for Puntland’s counterterrorism efforts.
This raises serious questions about the political and strategic divisions between Puntland and Mogadishu, the effectiveness of U.S. intervention, and the long-term consequences for counterterrorism in the Horn of Africa.
I. Puntland’s Lone Battle Against ISIS
1. Puntland's Strategic Fight Against Terrorism
Since December 2024, Puntland has been engaged in a self-led military operation to eliminate ISIS cells entrenched in the mountainous terrain of the Bari region. Unlike the Al-Shabaab terrorist group, which operates primarily in southern Somalia, ISIS in Somalia has established bases in Puntland, taking advantage of the region’s rough terrain and limited federal oversight.
Puntland’s government has declared counterterrorism a top priority, recognizing that allowing ISIS to operate freely would:
- Destabilize local governance and threaten Puntland’s political and economic autonomy.
- Increase terror attacks on local leaders, businesses, and civilians.
- Strengthen jihadist recruitment networks, drawing foreign fighters into Puntland.
Despite these threats, the Somali federal government in Mogadishu has not provided any military, logistical, or financial support to Puntland’s offensive against ISIS. Instead, Puntland has had to rely on international partners such as the United States and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to sustain its operations.
2. Puntland’s Government Statement on the Airstrikes
On February 2, 2025, the Puntland State Government of Somalia released an official press statement following the U.S. airstrikes, acknowledging their significance in the ongoing war against terrorism. The statement expressed deep appreciation for the U.S. and UAE’s support:
“The Puntland government acknowledges and expresses its sincere gratitude to international partners who have extended their support in the ongoing efforts to combat ISIS terrorists in the region. In particular, we appreciate the contributions of the United States and the United Arab Emirates, whose involvement in airstrikes targeting Daesh elements concealed within the Al-Miskat mountains of the Bari region has been invaluable.”
However, notably absent from the statement was any mention of the Somali federal government, further highlighting the growing divide between Mogadishu and Puntland in counterterrorism policy.
II. The Somali Federal Government’s Lack of Support
1. Why Has Mogadishu Refused to Support Puntland?
The federal government in Mogadishu, under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, has taken a centralized approach to counterterrorism, prioritizing operations against Al-Shabaab in the south rather than focusing on ISIS in Puntland. Several factors explain this lack of support:
- Political Rivalry: Puntland has long sought greater autonomy from Mogadishu, often operating independently in security matters. The federal government may view supporting Puntland’s counterterrorism efforts as legitimizing its autonomy.
- Competing Priorities: Mogadishu is preoccupied with Al-Shabaab, which poses a direct threat to the capital and central regions. The government may see ISIS in Puntland as a secondary concern.
- Tensions Over Foreign Military Cooperation: The U.S. airstrikes in Puntland were coordinated without Mogadishu’s direct involvement. This could create friction between the Somali government and the U.S., suggesting that Washington bypasses the central government in favor of regional actors.
Mogadishu’s failure to support Puntland’s military efforts raises concerns about the effectiveness of Somalia’s national counterterrorism strategy. If regional and federal authorities are not aligned, terrorist groups could exploit these divisions to strengthen their positions.
III. The Role of U.S. Airstrikes: A Calculated Intervention?
1. Trump’s Counterterrorism Strategy in Somalia
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has always favored precision strikes over prolonged military engagements, a doctrine that aligns with his “America First” foreign policy. After ordering the Puntland airstrikes, Trump took to Twitter (X) to declare the mission’s success:
“ISIS is on the run in Puntland! We took out a senior attack planner and multiple terrorists in a BIG WIN for Somalia and global security. No civilians harmed. America will always lead the fight against terror!”
Trump’s direct engagement with Puntland, rather than Mogadishu, signals a significant shift in U.S. counterterrorism strategy:
- Supporting localized security forces over national governments.
- Targeting key terrorist leaders instead of long-term troop deployments.
- Maintaining a limited but highly effective military footprint in Africa.
By backing Puntland’s counterterrorism efforts, the U.S. may be indicating that it trusts Puntland’s security strategy more than Mogadishu’s centralized approach.
IV. The Political and Security Consequences
1. Deepening Rift Between Puntland and Mogadishu
The federal government’s unwillingness to assist Puntland’s counterterrorism efforts could lead to:
- Increased Puntland autonomy: Puntland may seek even greater independence in military and governance matters, further straining relations with Mogadishu.
- A divided national security strategy: Somalia’s war against terrorism requires coordinated efforts between regions and the central government. Without unity, extremist groups may exploit these divisions.
2. Regional Security Ramifications
With ISIS suffering heavy losses in Puntland, the group may:
- Attempt to regroup elsewhere in Somalia, potentially shifting its base to southern or central regions.
- Increase terrorist attacks in urban centers to demonstrate its resilience.
- Strengthen alliances with Al-Shabaab, creating a greater security threat for Somalia and neighboring countries.
Puntland will need continued international support to prevent a resurgence of ISIS fighters and maintain pressure on terrorist networks.
Conclusion:
A Pivotal Moment for Somalia’s Counterterrorism Efforts
However, the lack of support from Mogadishu raises critical concerns about Somalia’s internal security coordination. Without a unified national counterterrorism strategy, terrorist groups may exploit political divisions to their advantage.
For now, Puntland stands at the frontline of Somalia’s battle against terror, with or without Mogadishu’s backing.
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