Conflict of Interest in Garowe, Somalia

Main Perspectives:

1. Government's Perspective
2. Aran Jan Group's Perspective
3. Clan Elders' Perspective

Subtopics:

1. Government's Perspective

• Democratic Philosophy and Mandate: The government, having the mandate to lead the country, strongly upholds a democratic system "for the people, by the people". It aims to implement a "one man, one vote" system.
• Transition to Multi-Party System: The government intends to amend the constitution, extending the number of political parties from three to five, to enhance diversity and representation.
• Public Support: Election authorities report nearly 400,000 registered voters, and 3,775 candidates from seven political parties, including the ruling Kaah party, are on the ballot across 33 districts in local elections.
• Opposition to Clan-Based Selection: The government stands against the current system where clan elders select parliamentary members based on clan affiliation, seeing it as prone to corruption and vote buying.

2. Aran Jan Group's Perspective

• No Official Mandate: Unlike the government, the Aran Jan group does not hold a formal mandate to direct the country, yet it exerts influence through its opposition to democratic processes.
• Resistance to Democratic Elections: The group, based in Garowe, stands against the democratic election process advocated by the government.
• Advocacy for Clan-Based Selection: They endorse the clan elders' system of parliamentary member selection, a process potentially susceptible to corruption and vote buying.
• Support from Federal Leaders: The group receives financial backing from federal leaders who perceive democratic elections as a threat to the clan-based 4.5 formula election system that brought them to power. These leaders believe that due to security concerns in South and Central Somalia, they won't hold a "one person, one vote" system in the 2026 federal election.

3. Clan Elders' Perspective

• Desire to Maintain Status Quo: Clan elders aim to maintain the current system, resisting changes that threaten their traditional authority and the clan-based selection process.
• Opposition to Democratic Elections: They reject the "one man, one vote" principle, believing it could undermine their power in parliamentary member selection.
• Support for Clan Representation: They argue that the clan-based system ensures all clans receive adequate representation in the parliament.

 

The Ongoing Conflicts in Somalia: A Complex Web of State-Society Relations, Religious Discourses, Elite Power Struggles, and Politicized Clan Dynamics

As of 2023, Somalia is embroiled in a complex web of conflicts marked by state-society tensions, religious extremism, elite power contests, and politicized clan dynamics. This multifaceted conflict landscape underscores the intricate socio-political context of Somalia, calling for nuanced strategies for peacebuilding and conflict resolution.

Tensions Between State and Society:

A notable facet of Somalia's current issues is the tension between the federal government and the states it oversees. Critics point to a divisive strategy by the central government, based in Mogadishu, suggesting it seeks to amass power by weakening member states of the federation. Allegations of government interference in regional conflicts, particularly in the case of Garowe in Puntland, is seen as an attempt to destabilize a stronghold of federalism and democracy in the country. As Puntland pioneers democratic governance with its 'one person one vote' elections, such interferences indicate the significant chasm between state and society, and highlight struggles for power and control.

Conflict Under the Guise of Religion:

In the religious arena, extremism, chiefly through the militant Islamist group Al-Shabab, intensifies Somalia's instability. Predominantly active in South and Central Somalia, Al-Shabab has inflicted considerable damage, opposing the democratization process while advocating for nationwide Sharia law. Their use of religious sentiments to achieve political objectives not only undermines the government's authority but also widens social and political schisms.

Elite Power Struggles:

Amid this turbulent backdrop, power disputes among the political elite add a further layer of complexity. A prime example is the group known as "Aran Jan" in Puntland, allegedly backed by external entities aiming to destabilize Puntland. They strive to usurp power by subverting the democratic choices of the populace. Such elite conflicts, characterized by manipulation, coercion, and violence, pose substantial threats to regional peace and stability.

Politicized Clan Dynamics:

Inextricably linked to these power struggles are the politically charged clan conflicts. Clan identity is deeply embedded in Somali politics and society and is manipulated by groups like "Aran Jan" to provoke intra-clan disputes. Such politically incited conflicts disrupt social cohesion and hinder progress toward more democratic governance.

In conclusion, the ongoing conflicts in Somalia represent a convoluted amalgam of state-society discord, religious extremism, elite power disputes, and politicized clan dynamics. Tackling these challenges necessitates a comprehensive strategy that promotes inclusive governance, counters extremism, mediates elite disputes, and depoliticizes clan identities. The path towards stability and peace in Somalia is undoubtedly arduous, but it is within reach with concerted and strategic efforts.

 

President Deni's Emphasis on Accountability in Somalia's Political Transformation

In the intricate landscape of Somalia's politics and state-building processes, accountability has been brought to the forefront by President Said Abdullahi Deni of Puntland State. With a focus on fundamental rights, security, and economic stability, the ongoing transformation is marked by complexity, conflict, and a common pursuit of progress. President Deni's recent address highlighted a missing piece of the puzzle - an explicit call for enhanced accountability in the federal government.

The essence of accountability lies in the responsibility of entities, particularly those in power, to explain, justify, and take responsibility for their actions. This becomes especially pivotal in a state-building process like the one Somalia is currently undergoing. As it emerges from decades of conflict and instability, the establishment of trustworthy, accountable institutions is an imperative step in the nation's journey towards sustainable peace and development.

President Deni underlined this crucial element in his speech by stating, "What are we missing from the federal government? Somalia is undergoing political and state-building processes, where accountability plays pivotal roles. Let's hold the federal government accountable, just as you hold me accountable." This statement serves as a crucial call to action for all stakeholders in the state-building process. It underscores the need for accountability, not just at a local or regional level, but equally, if not more, at the federal level.

Accountability in the federal government can lead to enhanced trust among Somalia's population and international partners, improving cooperation and fostering stability. More importantly, it ensures that decisions and policies made at the highest level are in the best interests of the people and the country as a whole. Therefore, President Deni's emphasis on this aspect can be seen as a pathway towards an effective, transparent, and representative federal government in Somalia.

Furthermore, the concept of accountability extends to the socio-political dynamic between leaders and the populace. The remark, "just as you hold me accountable," implies the essence of democratic engagement. Citizens, who are the ultimate bearers of the consequences of political decisions, must take an active role in monitoring and questioning the actions of their leaders. This call for public engagement in the accountability process enhances the democratic principles within the state-building process, ensuring that the government is of the people, by the people, and for the people.

However, establishing accountability within the federal government and the wider political structure in Somalia is not an overnight task. It requires structural reforms, robust institutions, political will, and societal change, among other things. For this to happen, Somalia needs support from its international partners, both in terms of resources and expertise.

President Deni's plea for federal accountability could mark a turning point in Somalia's state-building process. It serves as a rallying call for all those involved, domestically and internationally, to ensure that accountability becomes a cornerstone of Somalia's political future. Only then can the federal government truly fulfill its mandate, safeguarding the interests of its citizens and steering the nation towards lasting peace, stability, and prosperity.

"The Puntland Government of Somalia: Proposals for Solutions to Challenges Surrounding State Building in Somalia"

The Puntland Government of Somalia recognizes the positive trajectory progress of the Somali Statebuilding process since the inception of the Federal mechanism in Mbagathi, Kenya, in 2004. The Government of Puntland has been instrumental in realizing a peaceful, united, and democratic Federal Government of Somalia. However, numerous serious concerns have been raised over time regarding the lack of political will and systematic delays in reaching negotiated political settlements that would foster the completion of the provisional Federal Constitution.

1. Political Challenges:

The central challenge is Mogadishu's consistent failure to implement political and legal agreements between Puntland and the Federal Government. The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has recurrently circumvented its constitutional mandates, limiting the roles of the Federal Member States (FMS). On 27th May 2023, the FGS issued a non-inclusive statement intending to abolish the constitutional Government structure, risking both the Federal Government and the FMS to collapse.

2. The Puntland's Approach:

The Puntland Government considers the National Consultative Council (NCC) as an ad-hoc, non-legally binding platform ill-equipped to settle the national contentious issues. The platform has failed to present an inclusive state-building agenda, proposing unconstitutional and non-inclusive initiatives instead. Thus, the Puntland Government has decided to negotiate bilaterally with the Federal Government of Somalia.

3. Nation-wide Challenges:

In addition to grappling with political, security, financial, and technical challenges, the following issues have become integral challenges that Somalis are yet to fully resolve. The Puntland Government is thus providing its perspective on the solutions to these nation-wide challenges.

4. Proposed Solutions:

Solutions proposed by the Puntland Government include:

• Finalizing the Provisional Federal Constitution: Through a bilateral agreement between the Federal and Puntland Government, harmonizing the Federal and Puntland Constitutions, and a public referendum.
• Delineation of Governmental Powers: The FGS should exercise powers enshrined in the Provisional Federal Constitution through consultations while the powers not explicitly mentioned in the Constitution should be vested with the FMS.
• Distribution of National Resources and International Development Aid: Puntland government advocates for direct engagement of donors with the State Government and each Member State should negotiate with FGS separately for resource allocation.
• Administration of Revenue and National Fiscal policy: Puntland advocates for FMS to control the development, management, and utilization of economic infrastructures within their territories.
• The Issue of Somaliland: Puntland Government suggests resolving the issue through dialogue while maintaining the territorial integrity and unity of Somalia.
• Status of the Capital City: Puntland welcomes consensus agreement on the status of the capital city.
• Implementation of Federal Government Regulations: Regulations prepared without consultation should not be recognized until they are renegotiated and agreed upon.
• Implementation of Democratic Elections: The Government of Puntland proposes conducting democratic elections at all levels, with the respective FMS responsible for preparation, scheduling, implementation, and monitoring of elections.
• Building National Security Forces: Puntland calls for the establishment, training, and equipping of the Darawish and police forces at the FMS level.
• Conflict in Laascaanood: Puntland condemns the recent attacks by the Somaliland administration and commits to providing humanitarian assistance for the victims of the conflict.

Conclusion:

The Puntland Government of Somalia, recognizing the challenges facing the nation, is actively participating in dialogue and negotiations with the FGS and other stakeholders to facilitate a peaceful, democratic, and prosperous future for the people of Somalia. Through its proposals, Puntland hopes to address the primary obstacles facing the nation and pave the way for a successful state-building process. It underscores the importance of inclusivity, dialogue, negotiation, and respect for constitutional provisions in achieving these aims.

 

From National to Tribal: The Transformation of Somalia's Federal Army

The effectiveness of a military force as an instrument of national defense and security relies not only on its tactical prowess and hardware but also on its coherence as a unified entity. This unity stems from a shared sense of purpose and allegiance to a common national identity. However, when a military institution is plagued by tribal or factional interests, the integrity and effectiveness of the army can be compromised. This article delves into the nature of a federal army within the context of Somalia's ongoing internal conflicts and explores whether it functions as a national army or a tribal one.

In an ideal scenario, a national army ideally represents a country's entire populace, safeguarding the national interest above subgroup or regional preferences. It embodies a sense of unity and common purpose that transcends ethnic, regional, or tribal affiliations. Unfortunately, in the case of Somalia, the federal army's ability to operate as a national force is hindered by the pervasiveness of tribal influences and inter-clan conflicts.

The Somali National Army (SNA) faces numerous challenges that impede its functioning as a unified national force. Tribal loyalty often surpasses national allegiance, resulting in recurring clashes between SNA forces and regional paramilitary groups. A notable incident occurred on June 13, 2023, in the southern port town of Barawe, which serves as the capital city of the Southwest Administration. During a fierce gun battle between the SNA and regional forces, ten individuals were killed, and several others sustained injuries. This confrontation highlights the deep-seated divisions within the army and the wider country.

Rather than presenting a united front against common external threats, such as the Al-Shabaab terrorist group, the SNA's focus is frequently diverted towards internal clan disputes. The prioritization of tribal interests over national security exacerbates the fragmentation of the Somali military. This factionalized environment emboldens terrorist groups and hampers counterterrorism operations.

Somali society, deeply rooted in a clan-based social structure, extends this tribal mentality to the military. The "us versus them" perspective fostered by this mindset undermines attempts to establish a unified, national army. Consequently, the SNA often functions more as a tribal army, with soldiers' loyalties leaning towards their clans rather than the central government. This situation disrupts military hierarchy, discipline, and overall effectiveness.

The tribal mentality within the SNA and the prevalence of inter-clan conflicts raise existential questions about the nature of the Somali military. Is it a federal army, a national army, or a tribal army? Given the tribal affiliations within the SNA and the resulting conflicts, it is presently more akin to a tribal army than a national one.

Conclusively,, the case of Somalia underscores the significance of a shared national identity and a unified sense of purpose in the functioning of a federal army. Transforming the Somali National Army into an effective national force requires more than mere physical resources. It necessitates fostering a national identity that transcends tribal loyalties and cultivating a unified purpose that prioritizes national security over clan-based interests. As long as the SNA remains a tribal army, Somalia's national security will remain fragmented, impeding the country's progress and its ability to effectively combat terrorism.

 

The essence of the Security Council press statement on the situation in Lascaano, Somalia:

1. Reaffirmation of Respect: The Security Council members fully respect Somalia's sovereignty, territorial integrity, political independence, and unity.

2. Concern for Violence and Displacement: The ongoing violence in Laascaanood, Northern Somalia, has caused significant civilian casualties and the displacement of over 150,000 people. The Security Council expresses deep sympathy for the victims and their families and wishes a speedy recovery for the injured.

3. Support for Ceasefire and Dialogue: The Security Council welcomes efforts by the Federal Government of Somalia, Ethiopia, and clan elders to secure a ceasefire and promote inclusive, Somali-led national dialogue. All parties are urged to urgently reach a ceasefire agreement and engage in inclusive dialogue and peaceful dispute resolution. The United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) is called upon to provide necessary support.

4. Condemnation of Violence and Clashes: The Security Council condemns the violent clashes between "Somaliland" security forces and clan militia in Laascaanood. All acts of violence against civilians and damage to civilian infrastructure are strongly condemned.

5. Call for Withdrawal and Restraint: The Security Council calls for the immediate withdrawal of "Somaliland" security forces and urges all parties to exercise restraint, refrain from provocative actions, incitement to violence, and inflammatory rhetoric. These steps are crucial to de-escalate the situation, rebuild trust, and create conditions for peace.

6. Reminder of International Obligations: All parties are reminded of their obligations under international law, including international humanitarian law. The Security Council urges accountability for violations of international humanitarian law and human rights abuses.

7. Concern for Humanitarian Impact: The Security Council expresses concern about the humanitarian situation in Laascaanood and the Sool region, compounded by the displacement and hardship caused by the 2022 drought. All parties are called upon to allow and facilitate the rapid and unhindered provision of humanitarian assistance in accordance with international law and humanitarian principles.

8. Appeal for Donor Support: All donors are called upon to increase humanitarian assistance to ensure the provision of aid and essential support. Access for explosive ordnance disposal teams to remove explosive remnants is also requested.

In essence, the Security Council press statement emphasizes the need for a ceasefire, inclusive dialogue, respect for international law, accountability, and increased humanitarian assistance to address the situation in Somalia and promote peace and stability.

PRESS RELEASE SECURITY COUNCIL

East Africa Federation

The East Africa Federation is a visionary initiative that aims to unite the countries of East Africa into a cohesive entity. This integration process encompasses economic, political, and social dimensions, with the ultimate goal of fostering regional cooperation, development, and prosperity. In this essay, we will delve into the main branches of the East Africa Federation, namely economic integration, political integration, and social integration. 

Economic Integration: Economic integration forms a fundamental pillar of the East Africa Federation. This branch seeks to establish a unified economic framework that promotes seamless trade and investment among member countries. Key subtopics under economic integration include the establishment of a common market, monetary union, and the facilitation of trade and investment. 

A common market involves the removal of trade barriers such as tariffs and quotas, enabling the free movement of goods, services, and capital within the federation. By doing so, member countries can leverage economies of scale, enhance competitiveness, and attract increased investments. 

In addition, a monetary union aims to establish a common currency, which would streamline financial transactions and facilitate cross-border trade. This would enhance economic stability, promote price transparency, and eliminate exchange rate uncertainties, thereby encouraging intra-regional trade and investment. 

Furthermore, the East Africa Federation emphasizes the significance of trade and investment within the region. Efforts are made to develop infrastructure, enhance connectivity, and provide a conducive environment for businesses to thrive. By promoting trade and investment, the federation aims to bolster economic growth, create employment opportunities, and improve the overall standard of living for its citizens. 

Political Integration: Political integration is another crucial aspect of the East Africa Federation. This branch aims to establish supranational governance, political institutions, and defense and security mechanisms to ensure peace, stability, and effective decision-making within the federation. 

Supranational governance involves the establishment of institutions with decision-making powers that transcend national boundaries. These institutions would oversee and coordinate policies on various regional matters such as trade, finance, infrastructure, and environmental issues. By pooling resources and expertise, member countries can tackle common challenges and address regional priorities more effectively. 

Political institutions, such as a regional parliament or assembly, would provide a platform for representatives from member countries to discuss and legislate on matters that affect the federation as a whole. Through these institutions, member countries can work together to formulate policies that promote regional development, safeguard human rights, and protect the interests of their citizens. 

Defense and security cooperation is crucial for ensuring peace and stability within the federation. By collaborating on defense matters, member countries can enhance their collective security, deter external threats, and respond effectively to crises. Initiatives such as joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and coordinated border control efforts would strengthen defense and security within the East Africa Federation. 

Social Integration: Social integration constitutes the third branch of the East Africa Federation, aiming to foster cultural exchange, promote the free movement of people, and enhance education and healthcare systems. These subtopics contribute to building a strong sense of regional identity, promoting social cohesion, and improving the overall well-being of citizens. 

Cultural exchange initiatives would enable people from different member countries to share their traditions, customs, and values. This exchange would not only enrich the cultural fabric of the federation but also enhance understanding and tolerance among its diverse populations. 

The free movement of people within the federation is a vital aspect of social integration. By allowing citizens of member countries to travel, work, and reside freely within the region, the East Africa Federation promotes social cohesion and facilitates the exchange of skills, knowledge, and experiences. This movement can contribute to economic growth, as well as the development of a skilled and mobile labor force. 

Furthermore, education and healthcare systems play a pivotal role in social development. The East Africa Federation aims to harmonize and improve educational standards, ensuring quality education is accessible to all. Similarly, healthcare systems would be strengthened through cooperation in areas such as medical research, disease prevention, and the sharing of healthcare resources.

Can Democracy Exist in Somalia Without Trust?

 Somalia, a country marred by political instability and prolonged conflicts, has faced significant challenges in establishing a functioning democracy. President Hasan's commitment to conducting a one person-one vote election in 2026 offered hope for democratic progress. 

However, deep-rooted mistrust among clans, the presence of Al-Shabaab in certain regions, the lack of reconciliation, and the unresolved divisions, including Somaliland's separatist claims, pose formidable obstacles to the realization of a fair and inclusive electoral process. This article examines the critical relationship between trust and democracy in Somalia, and delves into the factors hindering the implementation of a one person-one vote election in 2026. 

 Clan Politics and Power Struggles Somalia's political landscape has long been dominated by clan politics, where different clans vie for power and influence. This system, deeply entrenched in Somali society, has often engendered divisions and conflicts, impeding the formation of a unified national identity. Clan loyalty frequently takes precedence over broader national interests, undermining the trust required for a functional democracy. Historical feuds between clans, coupled with a tradition of seeking retribution, have fostered a culture of suspicion and mistrust. 

 Mistrust and Lack of Reconciliation The absence of reconciliation and accountability for past atrocities further exacerbates the prevalent mistrust among Somali clans. Grievances stemming from the civil war and the grave human rights abuses committed during the conflict remain unaddressed, perpetuating deep divisions and hindering the forging of meaningful alliances. The absence of justice and reparations for victims sustains a cycle of distrust, impeding the establishment of a solid foundation for democratic governance. 

 The Threat of Al-Shabaab In addition to internal divisions, the presence of Al-Shabaab, an extremist group controlling certain regions in South and Central Somalia, poses a significant challenge to democratic progress. Al-Shabaab's ideology is rooted in violence and opposes the democratic principles that Somalia seeks to embrace. The group's ability to disrupt governance structures and exploit existing divisions undermines the credibility of any electoral process. Countering the influence of Al-Shabaab is crucial for restoring trust and establishing a stable democratic environment that can facilitate free and fair elections. 

 Somaliland's Separatist Claims Somaliland, a region in northern Somalia, has declared itself an independent state, further complicating the path to democracy in the country. While Somaliland has achieved relative stability and established governance systems, its separation from the rest of Somalia deepens political fractures and hampers the goal of a unified democratic process. The ongoing dispute between Somaliland and the central government impedes trust-building efforts and consensus-building necessary for a nation-wide one person-one vote election. 

 Obstacles to One Person-One Vote Elections in 2026 Given the complex realities on the ground, conducting a one person-one vote election in 2026 presents significant challenges. Trust-building measures must be prioritized to bridge the divisions among clans, promote reconciliation, and address past grievances. 

The Somali government needs to invest in dialogue and reconciliation processes that foster open discussions and promote understanding among different groups. Addressing the threat of Al-Shabaab requires concerted efforts from the Somali government, regional actors, and the international community. A comprehensive approach involving robust security measures, effective counterterrorism strategies, and targeted development initiatives is essential to degrade Al-Shabaab's influence and create an environment conducive to free and fair elections. 

 Moreover, engaging in constructive dialogue with Somaliland is critical. The central government should explore avenues for negotiation, seeking to address the concerns and aspirations of Somaliland. Fostering a sense of inclusion and unity can contribute to a more inclusive democratic process. Conclusion Trust is a fundamental component for the success of democracy in Somalia