Can Democracy Exist in Somalia Without Trust?

 Somalia, a country marred by political instability and prolonged conflicts, has faced significant challenges in establishing a functioning democracy. President Hasan's commitment to conducting a one person-one vote election in 2026 offered hope for democratic progress. 

However, deep-rooted mistrust among clans, the presence of Al-Shabaab in certain regions, the lack of reconciliation, and the unresolved divisions, including Somaliland's separatist claims, pose formidable obstacles to the realization of a fair and inclusive electoral process. This article examines the critical relationship between trust and democracy in Somalia, and delves into the factors hindering the implementation of a one person-one vote election in 2026. 

 Clan Politics and Power Struggles Somalia's political landscape has long been dominated by clan politics, where different clans vie for power and influence. This system, deeply entrenched in Somali society, has often engendered divisions and conflicts, impeding the formation of a unified national identity. Clan loyalty frequently takes precedence over broader national interests, undermining the trust required for a functional democracy. Historical feuds between clans, coupled with a tradition of seeking retribution, have fostered a culture of suspicion and mistrust. 

 Mistrust and Lack of Reconciliation The absence of reconciliation and accountability for past atrocities further exacerbates the prevalent mistrust among Somali clans. Grievances stemming from the civil war and the grave human rights abuses committed during the conflict remain unaddressed, perpetuating deep divisions and hindering the forging of meaningful alliances. The absence of justice and reparations for victims sustains a cycle of distrust, impeding the establishment of a solid foundation for democratic governance. 

 The Threat of Al-Shabaab In addition to internal divisions, the presence of Al-Shabaab, an extremist group controlling certain regions in South and Central Somalia, poses a significant challenge to democratic progress. Al-Shabaab's ideology is rooted in violence and opposes the democratic principles that Somalia seeks to embrace. The group's ability to disrupt governance structures and exploit existing divisions undermines the credibility of any electoral process. Countering the influence of Al-Shabaab is crucial for restoring trust and establishing a stable democratic environment that can facilitate free and fair elections. 

 Somaliland's Separatist Claims Somaliland, a region in northern Somalia, has declared itself an independent state, further complicating the path to democracy in the country. While Somaliland has achieved relative stability and established governance systems, its separation from the rest of Somalia deepens political fractures and hampers the goal of a unified democratic process. The ongoing dispute between Somaliland and the central government impedes trust-building efforts and consensus-building necessary for a nation-wide one person-one vote election. 

 Obstacles to One Person-One Vote Elections in 2026 Given the complex realities on the ground, conducting a one person-one vote election in 2026 presents significant challenges. Trust-building measures must be prioritized to bridge the divisions among clans, promote reconciliation, and address past grievances. 

The Somali government needs to invest in dialogue and reconciliation processes that foster open discussions and promote understanding among different groups. Addressing the threat of Al-Shabaab requires concerted efforts from the Somali government, regional actors, and the international community. A comprehensive approach involving robust security measures, effective counterterrorism strategies, and targeted development initiatives is essential to degrade Al-Shabaab's influence and create an environment conducive to free and fair elections. 

 Moreover, engaging in constructive dialogue with Somaliland is critical. The central government should explore avenues for negotiation, seeking to address the concerns and aspirations of Somaliland. Fostering a sense of inclusion and unity can contribute to a more inclusive democratic process. Conclusion Trust is a fundamental component for the success of democracy in Somalia